THP Macro-credit cycle model · run viewer

Country opportunity

Run
1b15cc7ffdef378e
As of
2026-08-31
Strategy
macro-credit-cycle@2.1
Universe
50
Params
03052a2a8299
Inputs
catalog · 274 replaced
Code
d21f9cab +dirty

The second axis — five to ten years

An independent structural model runs beside the cycle: durable power, trajectory, resilience and catch-up runway. The two are never averaged into one number — they answer different questions, and the useful signal is where they disagree. Positive gap means the long view is the more favourable of the two.

The structural view likes these more

CountryStructuralBandGap
Philippines 66.8 Strong +2.06
Romania 64.1 Selective +1.92
Mexico 63.8 Selective +1.81
France 59.0 Selective +1.60
Brazil 61.5 Selective +1.59

The cycle likes these more

CountryStructuralBandGap
Hong Kong 52.6 Challenged -2.39
Russia 33.4 Challenged -1.71
South Africa 52.5 Challenged -1.62
Italy 52.4 Challenged -1.44
Israel 52.4 Challenged -1.39

Ranked at 0-3m

Ranks are relative to this fifty-country universe. Where confidence bands overlap, treat ranks as indistinguishable rather than ordered — an imputed credit input is flagged in the provenance column.

# Country Score Base Stage f. Resid. 0-3m3-12m12-24m Confidence Provenance
1 IndonesiaID 79.08 69.4 95 1.09 128 High ±0 observed
2 NetherlandsNL 77.99 67.7 95 1.09 2129 High ±0 observed
3 Hong KongHK 77.97 69.7 95 -0.91 311 High ±0 observed
4 DenmarkDK 77.79 67.4 95 1.09 41411 High ±0 observed
5 TaiwanTW 76.45 76.3 75 0.94 5417 Medium ±6 gap imputedDSR imputed
6 PolandPL 76.44 65.4 95 1.09 6133 High ±0 observed
7 VietnamVN 75.21 63.5 95 1.09 7515 Medium ±6 gap imputedDSR imputed
8 SingaporeSG 74.51 64.4 95 -0.91 886 High ±3 DSR imputed
9 Czech RepublicCZ 73.91 62.5 95 0.09 9716 High ±0 observed
10 ChileCL 72.56 59.4 95 1.09 102827 Medium ±6 DSR imputedthin peer
11 GermanyDE 72.27 62.4 85 3.02 1132 High ±0 observed
12 United Arab EmiratesAE 72.14 71.7 75 -1.06 12117 Low ±9 gap imputedDSR imputedthin peer
13 PeruPE 72.05 59.6 95 0.09 132626 Low ±9 gap imputedDSR imputedthin peer
14 IrelandIE 71.47 68.6 75 0.94 141634 High ±3 DSR imputed
15 PortugalPT 70.58 56.3 95 1.09 153332 High ±0 observed
16 South KoreaKR 70.23 60.3 85 2.02 1664 High ±0 observed
17 MalaysiaMY 68.84 53.7 95 1.09 173536 High ±0 observed
18 IndiaIN 68.61 63.2 75 1.94 181918 High ±0 observed
19 South AfricaZA 67.71 53.9 95 -0.91 191835 High ±0 observed
20 SwedenSE 67.65 55.3 85 3.02 201023 High ±0 observed
21 SwitzerlandCH 66.58 62.1 75 -0.06 212521 High ±0 observed
22 KazakhstanKZ 65.96 60.2 75 0.94 223045 Medium ±6 gap imputedDSR imputed
23 ItalyIT 65.14 49.0 95 0.09 232441 High ±0 observed
24 ChinaCN 65.08 55.3 85 -0.98 241513 High ±0 observed
25 IsraelIL 64.34 58.7 95 -10.91 25931 Medium ±6 DSR imputedthin peer
26 SpainES 62.81 54.3 75 1.94 263437 High ±0 observed
27 United StatesUS 62.60 55.0 75 0.94 273143 High ±0 observed
28 United KingdomGB 62.43 48.3 85 2.02 282019 High ±0 observed
29 AustriaAT 62.18 47.9 85 2.02 292120 High ±3 DSR imputed
30 ArgentinaAR 61.84 42.9 95 1.09 303233 Medium ±6 DSR imputedthin peer
31 ColombiaCO 61.34 48.1 95 -4.91 312738 Medium ±6 DSR imputedthin peer
32 FinlandFI 60.97 46.0 85 2.02 322324 High ±0 observed
33 BelgiumBE 60.22 50.3 75 1.94 333842 High ±0 observed
34 NorwayNO 56.28 59.4 50 0.26 344114 High ±0 observed
35 Saudi ArabiaSA 55.86 62.8 50 -3.74 353729 Medium ±6 DSR imputedthin peer
36 AustraliaAU 55.67 45.3 75 -0.06 364048 High ±0 observed
37 JapanJP 54.24 38.2 95 -5.91 374749 High ±0 observed
38 NigeriaNG 47.72 59.2 30 -1.89 38175 Low ±9 gap imputedDSR imputedthin peer
39 BangladeshBD 46.22 54.8 30 0.11 392210 Medium ±6 gap imputedDSR imputed
40 ThailandTH 43.97 52.1 15 7.50 404322 High ±0 observed
41 TurkeyTR 43.75 52.0 30 -0.89 412912 High ±0 observed
42 PhilippinesPH 42.68 49.4 30 0.11 424228 Medium ±6 gap imputedDSR imputed
43 MexicoMX 40.90 45.7 30 1.11 434539 High ±0 observed
44 CanadaCA 40.40 44.9 30 1.11 443625 High ±0 observed
45 BrazilBR 40.08 45.4 30 0.11 454640 High ±0 observed
46 RomaniaRO 39.98 36.3 50 -1.74 464447 Medium ±6 gap imputedDSR imputed
47 PakistanPK 37.89 44.0 30 -1.89 473930 Medium ±6 gap imputedDSR imputed
48 RussiaRU 36.94 52.3 15 -3.50 485050 High ±0 observed
49 FranceFR 35.74 39.7 30 -0.89 494846 High ±0 observed
50 EgyptEG 35.57 41.5 30 -2.89 504944 Low ±9 gap imputedDSR imputedthin peer